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2023 Tech Predictions Scorecard: GPT-4, Threads, and Market Calls Reviewed
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- by Zak El Fassi
Yesterday I was deep in digital archaeology (sifting through dusty Looms and half-built frameworks) when a forgotten Notion table surfaced: "Zak's Public Predictions for 2023."
The universe has jokes. I'd just finished a meta-analysis of prior meta-analyses (recursion, always), and this card appeared like it wanted closure.
🧠 2023 Scorecard
- Meta's Twitter clone? → Threads launched July 5. Direction right, clock off.
- GPT-4 release? → March 14. Direct hit.
- China reopening & rally? → Borders opened Jan 8. HK/ADR basket +45% in Q1. Nailed it.
- Roaring 20s market run? → S&P +24%. Broadly on target.
⚙️ Lessons in a Compressed-Cycle World
1️⃣ Time is the leverage, not the lag
Pandemic → stimulus → AI boom → tariff backlash—all inside 36 months. Precision timing > raw foresight. Knowing where to lean is table-stakes; knowing when to press is alpha.
2️⃣ Prediction ≠ victory
Getting GPT-4 right was nice. But spotting it would kick off an 18-month GPU land grab—that was the unlock. Same way I pitched "AI-first music generation" in 2022 and got polite eye-rolls. Now? Term sheets.
3️⃣ Feedback loops are now AI-accelerated
In 2022, GPT-4 was vaporware. Today I handed the dusty Notion card to an LLM that scrapes, scores, and contextualizes bets in minutes. The intuition audit stack is here. Use it—or drift.
🎰 Working Framework
- Vector > spot-price. Go for directional truths, not headlines.
- Timestamp everything. Memory fades. Logs compound.
- Prediction-autopsies. Turn hindsight into upstream tuning.
- Translate insight to optionality. Own assets or skills that benefit from change.
- Stay constructively contrarian. Early looks wrong—until it pays.
Threads wasn't a miss. It was an early call.
In a world of compressed cycles and recursive feedback, direction matters more than perfect timing.
I'm parking the 2023 card in a public repo this time. Let's see what finds me in 2027. 📊
What predictions are you sitting on that deserve a timestamp? The future has a funny way of circling back.
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