2023 Tech Predictions Scorecard: GPT-4, Threads, and Market Calls Reviewed

Yesterday I was deep in digital archaeology (sifting through dusty Looms and half-built frameworks) when a forgotten Notion table surfaced: "Zak's Public Predictions for 2023."

The universe has jokes. I'd just finished a meta-analysis of prior meta-analyses (recursion, always), and this card appeared like it wanted closure.

🧠 2023 Scorecard

• Meta's Twitter clone? → Threads launched July 5. Direction right, clock off.
• GPT-4 release? → March 14. Direct hit.
• China reopening & rally? → Borders opened Jan 8. HK/ADR basket +45% in Q1. Nailed it.
• Roaring 20s market run? → S&P +24%. Broadly on target.

⚙️ Lessons in a Compressed-Cycle World

1️⃣ Time is the leverage, not the lag

Pandemic → stimulus → AI boom → tariff backlash—all inside 36 months. Precision timing > raw foresight. Knowing where to lean is table-stakes; knowing when to press is alpha.

2️⃣ Prediction ≠ victory

Getting GPT-4 right was nice. But spotting it would kick off an 18-month GPU land grab—that was the unlock. Same way I pitched "AI-first music generation" in 2022 and got polite eye-rolls. Now? Term sheets.

3️⃣ Feedback loops are now AI-accelerated

In 2022, GPT-4 was vaporware. Today I handed the dusty Notion card to an LLM that scrapes, scores, and contextualizes bets in minutes. The intuition audit stack is here. Use it—or drift.

🎰 Working Framework

• Vector > spot-price. Go for directional truths, not headlines.
• Timestamp everything. Memory fades. Logs compound.
• Prediction-autopsies. Turn hindsight into upstream tuning.
• Translate insight to optionality. Own assets or skills that benefit from change.
• Stay constructively contrarian. Early looks wrong—until it pays.

Threads wasn't a miss. It was an early call.

In a world of compressed cycles and recursive feedback, direction matters more than perfect timing.

I'm parking the 2023 card in a public repo this time. Let's see what finds me in 2027. 📊

What predictions are you sitting on that deserve a timestamp? The future has a funny way of circling back.